The Long Shadow of 1979—and What the Crown Prince’s White House Visit Signals About Its End

Few years reshaped the Middle East more decisively than 1979. The Iranian Revolution toppled a key pillar of America’s regional architecture, and ushered in an era of radical politics that reshaped the region. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan unleashed forces that would reverberate for decades, notably the formation of al-Qaeda and its later offshoots. And the Grand Mosque seizure in Mecca jolted Saudi Arabia into a defensive crouch that reshaped its internal trajectory and, by extension, much of the Arab and Islamic world.

In the wake of these crises, Saudi Arabia turned sharply inward. Rather than gradually opening society to the winds of change blowing across Asia and the West, the Kingdom empowered narrow, regressive interpretations of Islam at home and supported their export abroad. A nation that once embraced gradual modernization instead built high walls culturally and intellectually. Regressive forces tried - but did not always succeed - to imbue a generation of young Saudis with a rigid worldview at odds with a rapidly globalizing world. The ripple effects of that inward turn were felt far beyond the Kingdom’s borders.

I felt these contradictions up close when I first visited the Kingdom more than thirty years ago as a young journalist on an exchange program. I spent a year living in Riyadh and Jeddah. I saw enormous potential— a dynamic people with deep curiosity about the outside world — but I also saw powerful forces resisting change, resisting openness, resisting the oncoming 21st century. Over the next three decades, I witnessed the long shadow of 1979 grow across the region, both in real impact and in perceptions outside.

For Washington, where the echoes of 1979 created a lens of threat, crisis management, and perpetual instability, the Middle East remained trapped beneath that long shadow for decades.

But in 2025, the contours of something new are emerging.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit to Washington underscored how different today’s region is from the one shaped in the aftermath of 1979. In many ways, the legacy of 1979 events birthed the tragedy of 9/11. The Crown Prince understood Osama bin Laden’s aims in that deadly terrorist attack, when he said in remarks at the Oval Office that “Osama bin Laden used Saudi people in that event for one main purpose only: to destroy the America&-Saudi relationship… A strong relationship between America and Saudi Arabia is bad for extremism, bad for terrorism.”

His comments signaled a recognition that the patterns of the post-1979 and post-9/11 world must be confronted and broken, not repeated. While this shift has been taking place in Saudi Arabia for several years now, Washington is just beginning to sense this moment. Only ten or fifteen years ago, U.S.&-Saudi dialogue revolved around energy, security, and geopolitics. Today, those issues remain, but the defining conversations now focus on artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, supply-chain integration, clean energy, sovereign investment flows, and the industries of the future.

In many ways, Vision 2030 is a direct repudiation of the world view of those inspired by the events of 1979. Still, much Western commentary on Vision 2030 focuses on the flashiest giga-projects or the quarterly targets. But that misses the deeper significance. Vision 2030 is the Kingdom’s attempt to unwind decades of stagnation and ideological rigidity. It is a national rewiring: opening cultural space, empowering women, revitalizing education, betting on advanced industries, attracting global talent, and putting Saudi Arabia well on the path to the 21st century prosperity that will be achieved by those nations willing to embrace and shape the new era.

Most importantly, Vision 2030 is a mindset shift. It is a deliberate effort to reverse the inward turn of 1979 and to forge a new social contract for a young population that demands opportunity, dignity, and mobility. Vision 2030 itself—not NEOM, not Qiddiya, not any single milestone—is the real mega-project, and the Crown Prince is its architect. Its success would be consequential not just for Saudi Arabia, but for the whole region.

The wider region has been shifting as well. The UAE has become a global node of finance, logistics, transport and technology, and the early successes of Dubai inspired the whole region. Morocco and Egypt are integrating into European and African manufacturing corridors. Qatar is translating its LNG strength into long-term technological industrialization. Iraq is slowly reintegrating economically.

Even some of the laggards are awakening. Post-Assad Syria is beginning its long and arduous march back to regional and global integration and reconstruction. A revived Syrian economy would be a powerful engine of growth in the Levant. The Palestinian people can hopefully emerge from their humanitarian disaster with a better future. Finally, an Iran economic revival and reintegration would not only benefit its own well-deserving people, but the entire region, and would be a direct repudiation of the 1979 legacy. Imagine a Syria-Saudi-Iran economic and logistics corridor that supports trade and prosperity.

Across the region, the logic of geoeconomics—connectivity, competitiveness, diversification—has begun to eclipse the old ideological frameworks. The entire region needs its own Vision 2030 and Vision 2040 project because none of them will achieve true success until the entire region is lifted up.

Within this emerging landscape, a successful Saudi Arabia becomes not merely a national aim but a regional accelerant. With its demographic weight, capital base, religious influence, and geographic position, Saudi Arabia’s trajectory has multiplier effects. If the Kingdom diversifies, opens, and competes globally, it generates investment, jobs, and opportunities across the Arab world. Vision 2030, in this sense, is not only Saudi Arabia’s vision. It is a potential backbone for a more confident, economically integrated Middle East.

The Middle East will not shed the legacies of 1979 overnight. Conflicts from Gaza to Sudan ensure that old dynamics persist. Iran still faces its own internal contradictions - a young, urbanized, wired population and aging leaders resisting change. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s transformation, while remarkable, is still at an early stage. But the region is no longer defined solely by its past. A new story is taking shape, one of youthful ambition, economic diversification, global integration, and a deliberate attempt to break with outdated narratives.

The agenda between Riyadh and Washington that is centered today on AI, investment, innovation, advanced industry, clean energy, and global competitiveness reflects that transformation. The conversations have changed because the region has changed.

The long shadow of 1979 may never fully disappear. But in 2025, it is no longer the only story. A different arc is forming, one that is still fragile, still contested, but unmistakably forward-leaning. The Middle East is writing a new chapter, and Saudi Arabia, once burdened by caution and constraint, is choosing to step into the future with unprecedented clarity and ambition.

This should be the headline of the Saudi Crown Prince’s visit.

تصفح المقال باللغة العربية:
نهاية "الظل الطويل" لعام 1979: ماذا تعني زيارة ولي العهد السعودي لواشنطن؟

By: Afshin Molavi
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Editor/Founder, Emerging World
Contributing Writer, Forbes