عودة النفط الى الصعود بعد توقعات انخفاض الانتاج

عودة النفط الى الصعود بعد توقعات انخفاض الانتاج

ايلاف من بيروت: هل يستعيد النفط صعوده بعد اسابيع من ملامسة اعلى الاسعار في البورصات العالمية، وسط توقعات بانخفاض الانتاج، تنشر شبكة "Bloomberg" تقريرا في هذا الصدد:

Oil Rebounds From Seven-Week Low on Speculation Output May Fall

Crude oil rebounded from its biggest drop in 2006 yesterday on speculation a growing U.S. surplus will lead to a cut in production later this year. Prices have slumped 14 percent this month.

A government report yesterday showed the U.S. is accumulating surplus stockpiles of crude and fuel. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted demand for crude would fall in the second quarter more than it had expected. If a glut in supplies develops, OPEC might start pumping less oil, analysts said.

``All we hear is that the U.S. is well-stocked and there's no reason for concern on that front,'' said Kevin Blemkin, a broker with Man Financial Plc in London. ``If we get below $55, then maybe OPEC will look to prop up prices.''

Crude oil for March settlement gained 53 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $58.18 a barrel at 10:38 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices yesterday tumbled 3.2 percent, touching a seven-week low of $57.60. Oil has declined 18 percent from the August record $70.85.

Brent crude for April settlement added 39 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $58.54 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.

U.S. crude supplies climbed 4.9 million barrels to 325.6 million last week, the highest since June and 12 percent above their five-year seasonal average, the Energy Department reported yesterday. Gasoline was 5.8 percent higher than that average and heating oil 20 percent higher.

OPEC's Opinion

OPEC, the source of more than a third of the world's oil, said in a monthly report yesterday demand for its crude may drop to 27.6 million barrels a day from the 30.2 million a day expected this quarter. OPEC meets in Vienna on March 8 to discuss whether to keep pumping close to capacity or cut output next quarter.

The surge in gasoline and heating oil supplies in the U.S. has eased concern shortages might develop. It has also reduced the profitability of making fuel, reflected in narrower refining margins. Refiners got $1.747 for processing three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of heating oil two days ago, the lowest profit since September 1994.

``Refiners are likely to reduce production,'' Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, wrote in a report. ``This should sap crude oil demand. Only OPEC could stem the decline in prices by reducing global supplies.'' A production cut at the next meeting ``seems likely,'' he wrote.

Refinery maintenance, known as turnarounds, usually occurs in late February and March as the heating season wanes. Units are repaired and upgraded in preparation for summer's peak gasoline demand. U.S. plants operated at 86.1 percent of their capacity last week, up 0.3 percentage point from the prior week.

Maintenance was deferred last fall because Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut units along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Too Far, Too Fast

Today's rebound in prices also responds to crude oil being ``oversold,'' a phenomenon that so-called technical traders, who watch charts to predict price movements, say indicates contracts have dropped too much and are set to recover.

The relative strength index, or RSI, is a gauge that attempts to identify possible turning points in the direction of a security's price by calculating the degree to which daily gains outpace daily losses over a given period, or the inverse. A reading above 70 suggests prices may be poised to fall. A reading below 30 indicates a rise may be in store.

The RSI for the closest-to-delivery crude contract on Nymex during the past nine days, fell to 18 yesterday.

``Funds were sweeping the market down last night and the rebound today comes because some people are covering shorts,'' Man Financial's Blemkin said. Still, ``we had such a big move down yesterday that any rally in the market is going to be sold into.''